NYC Office Forecast Discussion

287
FXUS61 KOKX 100114
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
814 PM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes with this forecast package.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) The cold eases as temperatures moderate in the near term.

2) A fast moving frontal system will bring some very light and
spotty precipitation late Tuesday afternoon into the first half
of Tuesday night. Some patchy light freezing rain and freezing
drizzle, and sleet may mix in with light snow.

3) There is a chance for rain and/or snow in the Sun-Mon period,
although there is a high amount of uncertainty.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Mid level cloud deck moving into the area this evening has kept
temperatures up several degrees from what was forecast. However,
there will likely be some breaks in the cloud cover and winds
will continue to diminish with high pressure building in. Don`t
have enough confidence to lower temperatures at this time, but
it could be a bit warmer than forecast.

The core of the arctic air is exiting the region. With a snow cover
in place and lighter winds, actual air temperatures get cold
tonight with lighter winds. However, the ultra harsh wind chills
are now a thing of the past as high pressure settles over the
region resulting in light to calm winds later tonight. With
better radiational cooling conditions some single digit
temperatures should develop in the more non-urban and interior
sheltered environments during tonight and early Tue AM.
Otherwise, expected widespread teens for minimum temperatures,
to around 20 for a portion of the NYC metro. As the high gets to
the east a weak return flow begins during the day Tuesday. A
light southerly flow will help temperatures get to and above the
freezing mark during the afternoon.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
A fast moving frontal system with a weak area of low pressure
passing through just north of the area will bring some patchy light
mixed precipitation to the region, and mainly some spotty light snow
across far northern portions of the area Tuesday afternoon into a
portion of Tuesday night. Any accumulation will be very light and
generally under an inch, and probably limited to a light coating in
most locations. Any lift with this system will be weak and should
limit precip amounts to mainly under a tenth of an inch of liquid.
However, with a warm nose working into the mid levels it is starting
to appear more likely that some places will see some very light
freezing rain and drizzle. This will have to be monitored with the
next forecast update. Have held off on any winter weather mixed
precip headlines for the time being, but this will have to be
revisited if current trends to light freezing rain / drizzle
continue.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
A deep Pacific trof is expected to spawn low pres E of the Rockies
by Sat, then track it across the Southeast and offshore by Mon,
potentially passing close enough to impact the local area. The
modeling has been consistent with the general idea of the storm, but
there remains a high amount of uncertainty with the details.

Most of the data suggests a W to E, or SW to NE type track, not
making a big hook up the coast. The arctic air thus far looks
limited, so this could be a sys with a lot of mixed pcpn and rain,
with a decent freezing rain threat inland if the low tracks to the S
and the flow remains backed at the sfc. Too far out to have
confidence in the details, and with the AIGFS consistently S of the
area, it could end up being just a glancing blow or nothing at all.
Still, with the multi-model support, the NBM is producing a 60-70
pop for the event. Stuck with the NBM for the fcst, but of all the
fields the temps in particular may be much too high for the event if
the flow remains backed and CAD occurs.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure builds into the region tonight into Tuesday
morning, then offshore late morning into the early afternoon
as a frontal system approaches.

VFR through much of Tuesday with MVFR/IFR conditions possible
for a 3 to 6 hour window Tuesday night as a frontal system moves
across the area producing a wintry mix. Also, a brief period of
light snow or flurries is possible at the terminals Tuesday
afternoon. The best chance will be at KSWF.

Light WNW-NW winds will likely become light and variable
overnight, persisting through morning, then becoming southerly
late morning/early afternoon. Winds will gradually veer to the
SW Tuesday night, then become W behind a cold frontal passage
during the early morning hours.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

A brief snow shower possible after 18Z Tue, confidence in
occurrence too low to include in TAF at this time.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday Night: MVFR/IFR possible with chance of a wintry mix
from about 02Z to 06Z.

Wednesday: VFR. NW wind gusts 20-25kt.

Thursday through Saturday: VFR. NW winds.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
The winds diminish into tonight with sub advisory conditions
returning to all ocean waters, with sub advisory conditions
continuing elsewhere. Ocean seas return to 2 to 3 foot levels on
Tuesday as high pressure begins to move further east as the winds
shift to the south. The winds increase Wednesday afternoon into
Wednesday night allowing for small craft conditions to return for
most of the waters.

Diminishing winds on Thu should allow all waters to fall blw sca
lvls by the end of the day. Winds and seas then look to remain blw
sca lvls Fri and Sat with a broad area of low pres building in.
Developing low pres will result in increasing winds and building
seas on Sun.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JMC/JE/DW
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JMC/JE