Albany Office Forecast Discussion
248
FXUS61 KALY 171740
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1240 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the south with fair and
mainly dry weather with seasonable temperatures today. A cold
front will bring some snow and rain back into eastern New York
and western New England Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.
A coastal low pressure system may track close enough to Long
Island and southern New England to bring accumulating snowfall
from the Greater Capital Region south and east late Sunday
afternoon into early Monday, followed by a frigid arctic air
mass for much of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...As of 1230 PM EST, areas of light snow
showers/flurries continue to move east/southeast across the
Mohawk Valley, Capital Region and into the Berkshires/northern
Litchfield Hills. Although light, can not rule out an additional
light coating (less than 0.1") on some colder surfaces through
early afternoon. This area of light snow seems to be in
association with low level convergence near a weak warm front,
working with low level lake moisture.
The low clouds will likely persist for most areas through early
to mid afternoon, outside of some temporary clearing across
portions of the upper Hudson Valley and SE VT. More pronounced
clearing may develop across the mid Hudson Valley and SE
Catskills later this afternoon.
Despite the clouds, temps are rising into the mid/upper 20s in
many areas, with some lower/mid 30s across the mid Hudson
Valley. Expect temps to rise another 2-4 degrees from current
levels for this afternoon.
[PREVIOUS]...
Key Messages:
- Seasonable temperatures and fair weather today.
Discussion:
.As of 653 AM EST...High pressure builds in from the south.
Some lingering lake effect snow showers ahead of a warm front
will continue for the western Mohawk Valley and western
Adirondacks. Very light additional accums of a coating to a half
inch will be possible.
The skies will become partly to mostly sunny from the Capital
District south and east, as mid and upper level heights rise
over the region. Clouds will linger early west of the mid-Hudson
River Valley and over the higher terrain to the east. Temps
moderate close to seasonal climatological temps with a blend of
the MAV/NAM MOS accepted with lower to mid 30s in the valley
areas. A few upper 30s may be possible in the mid Hudson River
Valley. Mid 20s to lower 30s will be common over the higher
terrain.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:
- A mixture of snow and rain expected Sat-Sat night, with
moderate to high confidence of accumulations 2-4" possible
across the SW Adirondacks.
- A 30-50% chance for 3" or more of snow from the Capital
District, southern VT and the eastern Catskills south and east
from a coastal low late Sun afternoon through early Mon
morning.
Discussion:
Tonight temps should drop off quickly with partly cloudy to
mostly clear conditions. Mid and high clouds should rapidly
increase ahead of a weak warm front and cold front approaching
from the central and eastern Great Lakes. We had lows occur
prior to midnight, and then temps rise or steady after midnight
as a southeast-southeast breeze picks up in the warm advection
pattern. Min temps will range in the mid teens to mid 20s.
The guidance has trended slower with the precipitation
associated with a slow moving cold front. Mid and upper level
heights gradually fall, as south to southwest flow develops in
the boundary layer. Sfc winds will increase from the south at
10-20 mph with some gusts 25-35 mph in the Hudson River Valley
and the narrow south to north valleys in the northern and eastern
Catskills. Some isentropic lift with modest moisture advection
will allow snow and rain to develop from west to east in the
afternoon. Local WFO ALY cool season studies have shown some
orographic enhancement off the southwest Adirondacks after wet
bulb cooling occurs may yield enhanced pcpn/snow in the central
Herkimer/southwest Hamilton corridor. We continued the forecast
of 2-4" though slightly higher amounts may materialize, but the
coverage area looked small for an advisory at this time. Expect
1-2" of snow potentially over the eastern Catskills, and
southern Greens with a coating to less than an inch in most
other locations. The mild southerly flow may allow for some rain
in the valleys before a cool down by the early evening. Max
temps close to the NBM were used with mid 30s to around 40F in
the valley locations and upper 20s to lower 30s over the mtns.
The cold front clears most of the forecast area by the early
evening with cold advection occurring in its wake. Some lake
effect and west/northwest flow upslope snow showers may occur
over the northern Taconics, southern Greens and Berkshires with
light accums of an inch or less. Lows fall back into the teens
to lower 20s for a few single digits over the Adirondack Park.
A trend for some snow continues for Sun-Sun night a coastal wave
forms along the front. A broad mid and upper level trough will
set-up over the central-eastern CONUS. A strong mid and upper
level jet off the East Coast and a strong baroclinic zone will
allow the coastal wave to form Sunday off the Delmarva and then
the track will make the difference in how much snow falls. The
latest GEFS/EC Ensembles/GFS/ECMWF/NBM and WPC guidance have the
wave track close enough to Long Island and southeast New
England for a light to moderate snowfall from the Greater
Capital Region, southern VT and the northern Catskills south and
east. In fact, the 24-hr NBMv4.2 snow probabilities for >4" are
in the 25-50% range from 12Z SUN to 12Z MON from southern VT,
the Capital District and the northern Catskills south and east.
CMC/GEPS are furthest north and the latest NAM furthest east.The
cyclone may reach Cape Cod by 06Z/MON with the a good portion of
the forecast are impacted by the deformation zone and decent low
to mid level FGEN south and east of Albany.
We have snow amounts close to the WPC/NBM numbers with some
adjustment to SLRs lower in the mid Hudson Valley/NW CT close
to 12:1 compared to 15-20:1 further north. Winter Wx Advisory
level snow of 3-5" may be possible for the southeast Catskills,
mid Hudson valley, southeast VT, southern Taconics, and
Berkshires and NW CT. 1-3" would be more common over the
Capital Region, northern Catskills Mohawk Valley, and the Lake
George Region. Portions of southern Litchfield Co. may get
close to 6". Subtle shifts in the coastal wave may change snow
amounts, so this bears watching. It will be a fast mover late
Sun pm into Monday morning. Max temps on Sun will be mainly in
the 20s with some colder readings in the Adirondacks. Snow
quickly ends Sun night with an arctic air mass building in the
wake of the system. The arctic blast may last through much of
next week. Lows MLK morning fall into the single digits and
lower teens with some below zero readings in the Adirondack
Park.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Messages:
- High confidence for bitterly cold temperatures Monday night
through Thursday morning.
- Lake Effect snow chances (50%) across the western Adirondacks
Monday afternoon through Tuesday night.
Discussion:
Martin Luther King, Jr Day is going to be the start of the bitterly
cold temperatures with morning low temperatures in the single digits
and teens. By the afternoon hours, arctic cold air settles in with
high pressure to our south as highs are in the teens and low 20s.
With Monday being a holiday and those that are planning on
adventuring outdoors during the day, it`s important to remember to
be prepared for the bitterly cold temperatures such as dressing for
the cold with multiple layers, having a winter ready kit in your
vehicle, and having ways to stay warm. Winds are going to contribute
Monday feeling even colder with feel like temperatures 10 to 20
degrees below zero in mountainous terrain and elsewhere between
negative five and actually five degrees.
Dry conditions return through Wednesday with the exception of the
western Adirondacks. Lake Ontario is favored by latest forecast
models to bring chances (50%) of lake effect snow showers to the
western Adirondacks through Tuesday. A brief lull in the snowfall
for the western Adirondacks for Wednesday before returning once
again with a weak upper level shortwave moving through over Canada
on Thursday bringing chances of snowfall across the western
Adirondacks (30%). Exact band placement and snowfall amounts are
uncertain this far out, but confidence continues to increase with
upper level flow to favor lake effect snow development off of Lake
Ontario to bring these chances of snow showers to the western
Adirondacks.
Back to the discussion on the bitterly cold temperatures...By
Tuesday morning, low temperatures are forecasted to be in the
negatives and single digits. Feel like temperatures are going to be
even colder as winds continue to be breezy through Tuesday afternoon
with temperatures feeling 5 to 25 degrees below zero (colder in
mountainous terrain). Highs on Tuesday are cold with mountainous
terrain locations in the single digits and in the teens for the
valley locations (ranging between 10 to 17 degrees). Winds decrease
Tuesday evening and become calmer for Wednesday morning, with low
temperatures feeling like the actual temperature. Wednesday morning
is forecasted to see clearing skies and with any recent snowfall
from recent weather systems, we could see temperatures drop well
below zero. Current forecast has temperatures between negative 15
and 0. Highs on Wednesday are in the single digits to the low teens.
Forecast confidence is very high due support of high probabilities
being greater than 95 percent by latest National Blend of Models 4.2
data for across all of eastern New York and western New England for
high temperatures being below 20 degrees and low temperatures being
below 5 degrees. The trend of needing Cold Weather Advisories
continues for Monday night through Thursday morning for all high
terrain locations and for Wednesday across most of western New
England and eastern New York as feel like (wind chill/apparent)
temperatures could reach criteria. Isolated high terrain locations
such as the eastern Catskills and western Adirondacks could reach
Extreme Cold Watch/Warning criteria Wednesday morning, but we`ll
continue to monitor the trends and latest probabilities of these
locations reaching criteria.
It is going to be cold through the work week. Remember to bundle up
for the very cold temperatures when heading outdoors by wearing
multiple layers of clothing and having ways of staying warm.
Thursday morning is going to be very cold as well but along the
Hudson River Valley low temperatures are forecasted to be one to
five degrees above zero. But for high temperatures Thursday, most
locations reach into the low teens into the low 20s and we start to
see a trend of temperatures returning to near normal for beyond
Thursday, with highs back in the 30s for the end of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18z Saturday...lingering low clouds and light snow
showers/flurries may produce MVFR Cigs/Vsbys at KALB and KPSF
through around 20Z/Fri, with MVFR Cigs lingering until 23Z/Fri
at KGFL. Conditions should improve overnight to VFR, although
will have to watch for localized ground fog development which
could lead to pockets of IFR Cigs/Vsbys. Thickening clouds
Saturday morning, with some snow showers possible after 16Z/Sat.
MVFR Cigs and MVFR/IFR Vsbys will be possible within any snow
showers.
Winds will be mainly south to southeast at 5-10 KT this
afternoon, except west at similar speeds at KPSF. Winds become
light/variable this evening, then trend into the south to
southeast and increase to 5-10 KT after midnight, perhaps
slightly stronger at KALB. On Saturday, winds will be south to
southeast at 8-15 KT with some gusts up to 20-25 KT by 16Z/Sat,
perhaps slightly stronger at KALB.
Outlook...
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN...RA...SN.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN.
Martin Luther King Jr Day: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Wasula
NEAR TERM...KL/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...Webb
AVIATION...KL/Webb