Albany Office Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 271749
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1249 PM EST Tue Feb 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Unseasonable warmth is expected through Wednesday ahead of a
strong cold front, with fair weather for much of today, then
occasional showers developing toward sunset and continuing
through Wednesday. The strong cold front will cross the region
Wednesday evening with gusty winds and heavy rain showers.
Sharply colder air will follow in the wake of the front, with
rain ending as snow showers Wednesday night into Thursday
morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...Significant warming has occurred as expected early
this afternoon with a well-mixed environment and dry low levels.
As of 12 PM, Glens Falls(55) had already broken the daily high
temperature record of 53 and Albany(60) is within one degree of
the record of 61. Increased wind gusts in the Capital District
this afternoon, as southerly winds have been gusting to around
35 mph. Mild, dry and breezy conditions will persist the rest of
the day with highs in the lower/mid 60s in most valley
locations. Clouds/showers arrive this evening associated with an
approaching disturbance.

.PREV DISCUSSION[0940]...Temperatures still cool due to the
relatively colder start to the day, but abundant sunshine,
increasing winds and developing mixing/dry low levels should
still result in quick/appreciable warming later this morning
into this afternoon. So current high temperature forecast still
looks good. Record highs are expected to be broken at Albany and
Glens Falls today. See Climate section below for details.

Much of today will be dry, with mostly sunny skies this morning,
followed by increasing clouds this afternoon. Some rain showers
may develop toward sunset, especially across the eastern
Catskills and mid Hudson Valley.

Despite the chilly start, we expect max temps to rebound nicely
given warm advection and fairly deep mixing, with high
temperatures reaching the upper 50s to lower/mid 60s within
valley areas, and 50s across higher elevations. These values are
slightly above the NBM temps and closer to the RAP13 2-meter
temps, and are either approaching, or breaking some records for
today`s date.

South to southeast winds will become gusty this afternoon,
especially within the Hudson River Valley, where some gusts up
to 30-35 mph are possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As the leading edge of strengthening low level warm advection
and low level jet approach, a band of showers should track
northeast across the region this evening. Some rumbles of
thunder will be possible, particularly across portions of the
Mohawk Valley and eastern Catskills, where higher-res models
suggest Showalter Indices dropping to between zero and -2C.
Temps should generally hold in the 40s in many areas tonight,
with portions of the Hudson River Valley possibly holding in the
lower 50s much of the night. There may be a few breaks in the
showers later this evening, however another surge of warm
advection and showers should overspread the region from
southwest to northeast closer to daybreak.

Occasional showers are expected Wednesday as area remains within
persistent isentropic lift. Some elevated instability could also
allow for a few embedded thunderstorms. It will be windy and
mild, with high temps in the mid 50s to lower/mid 60s.

A strong cold front will then track east across the region
around and after sunset (between 5 and 8 PM from west to east).
High-res models are suggesting a shallow line of heavy showers
and gusty winds accompany the cold front. Then, immediately
following the cold front, strong cold advection and rapid
pressure rises are expected. This should allow strong winds to
mix down to the surface, particularly within the Mohawk River
Valley, Capital Region and Berkshires, as the low level flow
aligns/channels down the Mohawk Valley. BUFKIT soundings from
the NAMNEST suggest the potential for >50 KT winds to mix down
in these areas, and therefore a High Wind Watch has been issued.
The strongest wind gusts appear likely for several hours in the
wake of the front, when wind gusts of 50-60 mph are possible
within the watch area, and generally 40-50 mph outside of the
watch. Wind gusts may decrease slightly toward and after
daybreak Thursday, however occasional gusts of 40-50 mph will
still be possible in some areas.

The showers should end as a burst of snow in many areas, with
the period of snow lasting longest across portions of the SW
Adirondacks, Mohawk Valley and eastern Catskills, as well as
higher terrain of southern VT and the Berkshires, where
accumulations of 1-3 inches could occur. Elsewhere, generally a
coating to an inch is possible.

Rapidly falling temperatures and the light snow accumulations
may allow untreated ground surfaces to freeze up rapidly during
Wednesday evening/night, raising the possibility for a flash
freeze (rapid freezing of untreated wet ground surfaces). Temps
will likely drop from the 50s to the upper 20s/lower 30s in less
than 6 hours in some areas.

A lake effect snowband may produce several inches of snow late
Wednesday night into Thursday morning across portions of
southern Herkimer County, with some extensions of the band
possibly reaching portions of the Capital Region, where some
additional light accumulations are possible. Lake effect
snowband should become more cellular/spotty during the day, and
may affect portions of the eastern Catskills/Schoharie County
with additional light accumulations. Highs Thursday mainly in
the 20s to lower 30s.

Remnant lake effect snow showers may shift back north into
Herkimer County and the southwest Adirondacks Thursday night,
with generally fair and cold conditions elsewhere, with low
temps in the single digits and teens for many areas with
decreasing wind.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Another period of above normal warmth is expected during the
long term period thanks to rising heights and warming temps
aloft. Valley highs will increase from the mid to upper 40s on
Friday into the low 50s for Saturday and then the mid to upper
50s for Sunday and Monday. Overnight lows will remain very mild
as well, with temps even staying above freezing during the
overnight for later in the weekend into early next week.

There is some differences in the models regarding the potential
for precip. Although it appears that Friday should stay dry
thanks to high pressure nearby, a coastal low meandering off the
mid Atlantic coast could allow for some showers for Saturday
through Monday. The best chance for this would be for far
southeastern areas, and there is the potential that this system
remains far enough south/east to avoid a direct impact on the
area. Even if it does occur, it appears that precip will be
intermittent light showers, as opposed to a steady or heavier
rainfall. Have gone with slight to low CHC pops at this time for
areas south and east of the Capital Region. With the mild temps
in place, any precip would only be plain rain, even during the
overnight. Skies should be partly cloudy, although more clouds
are possible if the coastal low is closer to the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 18z Wednesday...VFR conditions will prevail through the
rest of the daylight hours with just some increasing high level
clouds with low levels remaining dry. However, clouds will
quickly thicken this evening with conditions lowering to MVFR
levels as showers develop associated with an approaching
disturbance. With moisture increasing through much of the
low/mid levels overnight, IFR conditions are expected to develop
(especially cigs). After 12z Wednesday Borderline IFR/MVFR
should prevail through around 18z.

Winds through the next 24 hours will be south-southeast around
8-12 kt with occasionally higher gusts of 20-30 kt especially
at KALB.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Very Windy. Definite SHRA...SHSN.
Thursday: High Operational Impact. Very Windy. Chance of SHSN.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Daily Record High Temperatures for February 27th:

Albany: 61 (1997)
Glens Falls: 53 (2018)
Poughkeepsie: 64 (1976)

Daily Record High Temperatures for February 28th:

Albany: 63 (1903)
Glens Falls: 59 (2018)
Poughkeepsie: 73 (1997)

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Wind Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday
     afternoon for NYZ038>040-047>054-058>061-082.
MA...High Wind Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday
     afternoon for MAZ001-025.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gant/KL
NEAR TERM...KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...JPV
CLIMATE...JPV

NWS ALY Office Area Forecast Discussion