NYC Office Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KOKX 191741
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
141 PM EDT Tue Mar 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds across the region today before shifting
offshore on Wednesday. A frontal system moves across the area
on Thursday as a coastal low passes Thursday night into Friday.
A cold front then moves through Friday, followed by high
pressure over the weekend. A cold front tracks across the area
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Modified hourly temperatures and dewpoints to reflect current
conditions. Otherwise, high pressure will continue to build
across the region today. With weak cold air advection aloft,
temperatures are expected to remain near to a few degrees below
normal. A few more clouds move in this afternoon into this
evening as a shortwave passes north of the area, but no other
impacts are expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Skies clear tonight the wake of the shortwave, resulting in
good radiational cooling conditions in outlying areas as winds
become light. Overnight lows will range from the lower 20s
across the Pine Barrens and the far northern and western suburbs
to the mid 30s in the immediate New York City metro area.

The high shifts offshore during the day on Wednesday as weak ridging
builds in aloft ahead of an approaching frontal system. As the flow
shifts around to the south, afternoon highs will be a few degrees
warmer with with plenty of sunshine.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Overall general agreement noted aloft with latest model suite, but
important details differ which will have a significant impact on the
forecast. Upper trough moves east, and amount of phasing between
northern and southern streams remains in question. This important
detail will have a significant impact on exact placement/track of
sfc low, and depth of sfc low Thu night into Friday. Trend has been
west, closer to the coast, with latest ECMWF and NAM over land with
sfc low track initially.

At this time, it appears that the area will be impacted one way or
another with this trough and sfc low, with showers developing later
Wed night or Thu morning. QPF amounts should range from a quarter of
an inch to three quarters of an inch, but higher amounts are
possible.

At this time, do not expect snow, unless precip develops a little
quicker than forecast Wed night. Do have an rain/snow shower mix
across the interior, but with corresponding lower pops.

As the system departs, the sfc low deepens as it tracks toward the
Canadian Maritimes. A cold front crosses the area Friday, and a few
rain/snow showers may accompany the front. Winds however will be
quite gusty, increasing Friday, and remaining strong Friday night
into Saturday. Too early to determine with high confidence how high
sustained winds and gusts will ultimately be, but would expect
greater than 30 kt gusts for a time.

Once this vigorous trough pivots east, weak ridge builds, then
quickly flattens as next shortwave dives out of Canada, with
lowering heights expected once again across the northeast early next
week. At the sfc, high pressure gradually builds behind deepening
low Saturday. The high passes late this weekend as a cold front
moves through Monday.

Temps should remain around seasonal, but will fall a few degrees
Saturday behind the cold front, CAA. Temperatures likely rebound
Sunday and Monday, possibly above seasonal norms.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR with high pressure over the terminals.

NW-W flow 5-10kt backs W-SW for most terminals this afternoon. Winds
becoming light and variable for most terminals after 00z.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Winds may average closer to 240 magnetic before
19-20z and may then go southerly thereafter.

KLGA TAF Comments: Winds may range mostly 260-330 magnetic or even
become light and variable thru around 21z, but should favor south of
310 magnetic. Timing of wind shift this afternoon may be off by 2-3
hours. Low to moderate timing of shift.

KEWR TAF Comments: Winds may vary 260-320 magnetic thru around 21z,
but should favor south of 310 magnetic. Timing of wind shift this
afternoon may be off by 1-2 hours.

KTEB TAF Comments: Timing of wind shift this afternoon may be off by
1-2 hours.

KHPN TAF Comments: No tactical amendments scheduled and no strategic
amendments expected.

KISP TAF Comments: Timing of wind shift this afternoon may be off by
1-2 hours.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.Wednesday night...VFR.
.Thursday...MVFR/IFR in rain. SE G20-25kt. Chc PM LLWS.
.Friday...Mainly VFR, chance of rain/snow showers inland and rain
showers near coast. W-NW G25-30kt.
.Saturday...VFR. NW G30kt
.Sunday...VFR. W-SW G20kt.

&&

.MARINE...
Quiet conditions are expected on the waters through the day on
Wednesday as high pressure remains in control.

Winds ahead of a cold front will begin to increase from the SE Wed
night. An area of low pressure develops along the coast, and passes
nearby later Thursday/Thursday night. Once this low moves northeast
late Thu night and Friday, it will deepen as it makes its way toward
the Canadian Maritimes. West to NW winds will increase during this
time frame, and Gales are possible, especially late Friday and
Friday night/early Saturday. A cold front passes later Friday behind
the low, resulting in a slight wind shift to the NW.

As high pressure builds from the west, the gusty winds early
Saturday will slowly diminish as the weekend progresses.

Seas build Thu night and Friday per NWPS and Wave Watch III.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through Wednesday. Hydrologic
impacts will be highly dependent on the proximity of coastal
low developing to the south of the area Thursday. At this time,
the best chance for significant rainfall of an inch or more
looks to be across eastern Long Island and southeast CT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) remains off
the air.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/Fig
NEAR TERM...Fig
SHORT TERM...Fig
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JMC/Fig
HYDROLOGY...JMC/Fig
EQUIPMENT...

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion