Albany Office Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 232041
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
441 PM EDT Thu May 23 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will bring some showers and thunderstorms to
portions of the region this evening. Cool and breezy conditions
will follow for Friday, with some isolated showers. After a
brief period of dry weather Friday night and early Saturday,
another fast moving frontal system will bring showers for late
Saturday into Saturday night. Fair and warm conditions are
currently expected for Sunday into Memorial Day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 445 PM EDT, several bands of showers with a few embedded
thunderstorms moved across the region earlier this afternoon.
There remains spotty showers across the Mohawk Valley, SW
Adirondacks into central portions of NYS. Additional spotty
showers were tracking across across the mid Hudson Valley and
into NW CT.

Over the next 2-3 hours, expect isolated to scattered showers
to persist for areas along and north of the I-90 corridor.
Instability remains quite limited, especially after earlier rain
led to cooling within the boundary layer. Clouds persist
upstream, except closer to the actual cold front, where some
agitated Cu fields and a few isolated showers were noted.

Will still need to watch the main cold front upstream, which is
rapidly accelerating E/SE across SW Ontario. Kinematics remain
extremely strong, and overall upper level dynamics will rapidly
increase toward and especially just after sunset, with the
approach of a cyclonically curved upper level jet, placing areas
(especially from I-90 and points north) into the left exit
region. So, still can not rule out some showers/low topped
thunderstorms to form on the cold front, and with mid level
winds of 40-60 KT, strong downward momentum could lead to strong
wind gusts, even within lower topped showers (perhaps without
any lightning). So, trends will need to be watched upstream
across western NYS this evening. Should any low topped
convection develop along the front, timing would favor passage
through the region from NW to SE roughly between 8 PM and 11 PM.
And if convection fails to form, there still could be briefly
strong wind gusts as the front passes, perhaps 30-40+ mph.

After the front passes, expect breezy conditions with clearing
initially, before some clouds reform across higher terrain areas
before daybreak. Remaining breezy/windy, with lows mainly in the
upper 40s to lower/mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Friday-Friday night, cyclonic flow and cold air aloft, along
with a surface trough passing southward through the region,
should favor quite a bit of cloud coverage once deeper mixing
commences in the late morning through afternoon.
Isolated/scattered showers and sprinkles will also be possible,
especially across higher terrain areas. Gusty NW winds may reach
25-35 mph at times. Highs mainly upper 60s to lower 70s in
valleys, and upper 50s to mid 60s across higher terrain.
Clearing and cool for Friday night, with lows mainly in the 40s.

Saturday-Saturday night, clouds rapidly increase from NW to SE
Saturday morning, with some showers developing in the afternoon,
especially across the SW Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley
extending into the Lake George/Saratoga region. Areas south and
east of Albany may remain dry until closer to sunset. Then for
Saturday night, showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will be
possible as a frontal system approaches from the northwest.
Locally heavy downpours will be possible as PWAT`s climb with
1.25-1.5 inches. Highs Saturday mainly in the lower 70s in
valleys, and 60s across higher terrain. Max temps may occur
during the late morning/early afternoon hours before cooling
back into the 60s once showers develop. Lows Saturday night
mainly in the mid 50s to around 60.

Sunday, frontal system should move slowly south and east across
the region, with most likely timing during the morning hours.
However, there is some uncertainty whether the front slows down
its south/east progression. If so, isolated to scattered
showers/thunderstorms could linger into the afternoon. For now,
will confine most PoPs to the morning hours. Highs mainly

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Sunday night-Monday, weak high pressure should bring fair and
warm conditions, assuming aforementioned frontal system shifts
far enough to our south and east. Lows Sunday night mainly in
the 50s. Highs Monday should reach upper 70s to lower 80s in
valleys, and lower/mid 70s across higher terrain.

Monday night-Thursday, warm front looks to approach from the
south and west late Monday night into Tuesday. Some form of MCS
activity could affect the region during this time with a few
rounds of showers and thunderstorms. The front should lift north
of the region by Wednesday, before a cold front approaches from
the northwest for Wednesday night into Thursday. The air south
of the warm front could be quite warm to hot. For now, have
indicated max temps in valley areas reaching 85-90 for
Wednesday, with lows Tuesday and Wednesday nights mainly in the
50s and 60s. Cooler for Thursday, but still possibly above
normal depending on the speed of the main cold front, with
highs in the 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Several bands/clusters of showers/thunderstorms will move across
the TAF sites through early this evening, with best chances at
KGFL and KALB over the next few hours. A few heavy downpours and
gusty winds will be possible as thunderstorms pass through.

Another round of showers/thunderstorms will be possible this
evening as the main cold front moves through (most likely
between 00Z-02Z/Fri). In the wake of the front, expect mainly
dry conditions later tonight.

On Friday, as an upper level disturbance passes through,
isolated showers/sprinkles will be possible after 15Z/Fri.

As for flight conditions, outside of showers/thunderstorms,
mainly VFR conditions are expected, although MVFR Cigs will
remain possible at KPSF through 20Z/Thu. Areas of MVFR/IFR will
be possible within showers/thunderstorms.

South to southwest winds will average 8-13 KT with some gusts of
25-30 KT this afternoon/evening. Winds will shift into the
west/northwest behind the cold front, with speeds of 8-12 KT and
gusts of 20-30 KT possible, especially at KALB and KPSF.

Winds will be much stronger, and variable in direction in and
near any thunderstorms through this evening.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Memorial Day: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...Wind gusts 25-35 mph possible tonight into Friday...

A cold front will bring some showers and thunderstorms to
portions of the region this evening. Cool and breezy conditions
will follow for Friday, with some isolated showers. After a
brief period of dry weather Friday night and early Saturday,
another fast moving frontal system will bring showers for late
Saturday into Saturday night. Fair and warm conditions are
currently expected for Sunday into Memorial Day.

South to southwest winds will increase to 10-20 mph this
evening, with gusts up to 35 mph possible. In the wake of the
cold front, winds will shift into the west to northwest at 10-20
mph with gusts of 25-35 mph late tonight into Friday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Showers and scattered thunderstorms will continue through this
evening as a low pressure and frontal system approaches and
moves across the region. Rainfall amounts of 1/4 to 1/2 an inch
are expected with locally higher amounts in some thunderstorms.
Some ponding of water in poor drainage, urban and low lying
areas is possible. The storms will be moving quite fast so no
significant hydrological impacts are expected at this time.

Another round of wet weather is expected Saturday afternoon and
night with another fast moving low pressure system approaches
and moves across the region.

Please visit our Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/
web page for specific area rivers and lakes observations and
forecasts.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL

NWS ALY Office Area Forecast Discussion