Albany Office Forecast Discussion

FXUS61 KALY 231938

National Weather Service Albany NY
338 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019

High pressure will slowly build into the region from the
midwest. This will lead to dry weather for the next several days
with near seasonable temperatures.


Coastal low continues to further depart the region, bringing an
end to shower activity outside of a sprinkle or two in SE NY. A
few additional showers will be possible for the remainder of the
afternoon across the Adirondacks as another cold frontal
boundary sags southward. Dew points north of this boundary are
in the 40s/low 50s, whereas dew points across the forecast area
remain in the 60s. Still feels much drier considering the dew
points were in the 70s this past weekend.

So outside of these shower chances, the weather will be quiet
and cool overnight. The upper trough will slowly swing southward
into our area but is not expected to depart the region until
later in the week. Overnight lows are expected to dip into the
upper 40s (in the highest terrain) to 50s.


The main upper trough axis will be overhead on Wednesday so
expect a mix of clouds and sun throughout the day. The weather
will be dry at the surface outside of a few showers in the
Dacks during the afternoon hours. High temperatures will be in
the 70s across the high terrain, with low 80s in the valleys.

The upper trough will finally swing through the area Wednesday
night and Thursday as high pressure gradually builds in at the
surface. This will result in continued dry and seasonable
weather with overnight lows cooling into the 40s and afternoon
highs around 80 degrees. A few showers will once again be
possible Thursday afternoon, mainly across the high terrain.

By Friday, high pressure in entrenched at the surface as
temperatures warm into the upper 70s to mid 80s. Shower chances
are not anticipated.


A dry period characterized by above normal temperatures will be in
place for the extended forecast period.

The upper level trough will be pushed off the East Coast by mid-
level ridging as we head into the weekend. This will provide large
scale subsidence resulting in sunny skies and temperatures in the
upper 80s. Dew points will be in the mid-to-upper 60s this weekend
so heat indices will climb into the upper 80s to low 90s, especially
over the Capital Region and Mid-Hudson Valley. A couple very subtle
pieces of energy evident via low amplitude 500-hPa shortwaves could
push through the region with some instability in place, therefore
isolated "pop-up" showers and thunderstorms will be possible during
the afternoon and evening hours on Sunday and Monday. These showers
and/or thunderstorms will likely be very isolated in nature, so most
of the region should remain dry, and only slight chance PoPs are in
the forecast. Deterministic and ensemble guidance suggest that a
more pronounced upper level trough digs into the region sometime
late Monday into early Wednesday with a cold front sweeping through
the region. This will bring a return for showers and thunderstorms
sometime during the early week period. Temperatures will likely
return to seasonable conditions behind the cold front.


Some MVFR cigs associated with a frontal boundary moving
southeast will linger over POU and PSF through about 20z,
otherwise skies will clear this afternoon. Scattered showers
over the Adirondacks could make it as far southeast as GFL late
this afternoon, but the probability for any rain at GFL is less
than 30 percent and these have not been mentioned in the TAFs.
Tonight will be mainly clear and Wednesday will be mostly sunny
through early afternoon as high pressure dominates across the
region. Winds will be light from the north-northeast this
afternoon into tonight, light and variable tonight, and from the
northwest at 5 to 10 kts on Wednesday.


Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.



Minimum relative humidity values will generally be between 45
and 60 percent Wednesday and Thursday. Maximum relative
humidity values are expected to range 75 and 95 percent
tonight and Wednesday night. North to northwest winds between 5
and 15 mph remain in place through this afternoon with light
northerly winds expected on Wednesday near or less than 5 mph.


Only minor rises on area rivers were seen after a widespread
soaking rainfall which produced 0.50 to 3.50 inches across
eastern New York and western New England on Monday.

Dry weather is expected for the next several days outside of a
few light showers across the Adirondacks through Thursday. So
expect river levels to slowly recede and then remain steady.

Please visit our Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/
web page for specific area rivers and lakes observations and




LONG TERM...Cebulko

NWS ALY Office Area Forecast Discussion